Thursday, June 10, 2004
The Bush Administration is at it again. Today the State Department (my place of employment which I love dearly) issued a mea culpa...because they issued a report saying the exact opposite of what was actually true.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The State Department acknowledged Thursday it was wrong in reporting terrorism declined worldwide last year, a finding used to boost one of President Bush's chief foreign policy claims -- success in countering terror.
Instead, both the number of incidents and the toll in victims increased sharply, the department said.
Now, the claim is that the error was accidental, and they had bad data at the time (that seems to happen a lot...WMDs, anyone?). But a Washington Post Op-ed on May 17th actually portended this retraction with remarkable accuracy:
Are we winning the war on terrorism?
Although keeping score is difficult, the State Department's annual report on international terrorism, released last month, provides the best government data to answer this question. The short answer is "No," but that's not the spin the administration is putting on it.
"You will find in these pages clear evidence that we are prevailing in the fight," said Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. As evidence, the "Patterns of Global Terrorism" report says that worldwide terrorism dropped by 45 percent between 2001 and 2003. The report even boasts that the number of terrorist acts committed last year "represents the lowest annual total of international terrorist attacks since 1969."
Yet, a careful review of the report and underlying data supports the opposite conclusion: The number of significant terrorist acts increased from 124 in 2001 to 169 in 2003 -- 36 percent -- even using the State Department's official standards. The data that the report highlights are ill-defined and subject to manipulation -- and give disproportionate weight to the least important terrorist acts. The only verifiable information in the annual reports indicates that the number of terrorist events has risen each year since 2001, and in 2003 reached its highest level in more than 20 years.
[...]
So how did the report conclude that international terrorism is declining?
It accomplishes this sleight of hand by combining significant and nonsignificant acts of terrorism. Significant acts are clearly defined and each event is listed in an appendix, so readers can verify the data. By contrast, no explanation is given for how nonsignificant acts are identified or whether a consistent process is used over time -- and no list is provided describing each event. The data cannot be verified.
International terrorism is defined in the report as "premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets" involving citizens or property from multiple countries, "usually intended to influence an audience." An event "is judged significant if it results in loss of life or serious injury to persons" or "major property damage."
A panel determines whether an event meets this definition, but the State Department refused to tell us the members of the panel or the practices used to count nonsignificant terrorist acts.
We do know that the definition leaves much room for discretion. Because "significant events" include such things as destroying an ATM in Greece or throwing a molotov cocktail at a McDonald's in Norway without causing much damage, it is easy to imagine that nonsignificant events are counted with a squishy definition that can be manipulated to alter the trend.
The alleged decline in terrorism in 2003 was entirely a result of a decline in nonsignificant events.
Another curious feature of the latest report is that its catalogue of events does not list a single significant terrorist act occurring after Nov. 11, 2003, despite averaging 16 such acts a month in the rest of the year...
I'm really starting to wonder how many deceptions the Administration can get away with before the public loses faith in them. This isn't a case of "whoops, our numbers were a little off," this is a case of "whoops, we said one thing, got called on it, and miraculously discovered some typos! Damn you, tens column...!"
Disgraceful.
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